Thursday, 15 January 2009

First bet for the Blog and its a Winner!

Every way I looked at yesterday’s novice hurdle at Newbury, every way I imagined the race being run, Mad Max was going to win. The sticky ground was a minor concern, but these are the type of races in which I like to have a proper bet. Only 4 or 5 horses with any realistic chance and on tried and tested form, one horse stands heads and shoulders above the rest.

There was plenty of evens, 10/11 and 5/6 on Mad Max in the morning and since I rated him about a 2/5 or 1/3 shot, this illustrated that this was one of those times to bet odds-on. The key to betting at short prices is to make sure that you have as many factors as possible covered and no major doubts.

Mad Max has beaten Karabak on the bridle on his sole hurdle start at Ascot. Karabak then came out and thrashed Mahonia at Cheltenham. Prior to that race, Mahonia had beaten Medermit easily and then Medermit came out to win the G2 Kennel Gate Hurdle at Ascot, beating Dee Eee Williams. Dee Eee Williams had previously just beaten Shoreacres (Mad Max’s main rival on form today), so on a simplistic level, Mad Max had around 10-lengths in hand on Shoreacres today.

The only other main rival in today’s betting, Cockney Trucker, was all out to beat Unfurled (rated 118), so since Mad Max is no doubt going to be a 140+ horse, Cockney Trucker in my eyes represented no danger whatsoever.

Mad Max jumped and travelled supremely well on his hurdling debut, his bumper form backed up the strength of his form, so I thought this was one of those races for a proper bet.

It’s nice when it works out! Obviously you are always susceptible to an improver in a novice hurdle, but I really couldn’t see anything coming out of the woodwork on this occasion. It will be fascinating to see where Mad Max ends up at Cheltenham.

I had several bets with fixed odds bookmakers, but here’s my Betdaq bet...

(Click on image to make it bigger)

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